The Next Chapter

Back in May I asked what's next? I speculated a lot and didn't do three quarters of the things I said wanted to. I do have answers to some of the questions I asked back then. I have accepted a position at Brown University as the IT Manager for the Institute for Computational and Experimental Research in Mathematics (ICERM) effective December 1. This will be a huge move for Criss and I. Criss has always lived in Northwest Indiana, and I have been here the majority of my life. We have a lot of unknowns at this point, but we feel that the path was laid pretty clear for us.

Afghanistan 2050 Roundtable

Guest post at Chicagoboyz.net. Read it here: http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/14814.html

And you may say to yourself "My God, what have I done?"

Lets talk about oil for a minute. I'm probably one of about 10 billion know nothings with blogs writing on the subject, but it's been on my mind lately so I want to get the thoughts out there. I don't know very much about deep sea oil drilling or even crude oil's effects on the environment, so I have to rely a lot on the media and the Internet for my information. If I say anything blatantly wrong please enlighten me gently so as to bring me out of ignorance.

As I am writing it appears that BP has finally had some success with a solution. But is it too little too late? How much sea life will die because of contamination? What is the global impact? Will the damage be repairable? If so will it happen in our lifetime? What is the economic impact? If the vibrant fisheries have been wiped out, certainly fishermen will lose jobs, but the economic loss will certainly roll down. There are cannery workers, and brokers, and boat dealers and maintainers, and marinas, and grocery store clerks etc, who will feel this. It won't be localized. The price of fish will certainly increase. This might be good for fisheries in Alaska, but Alaskan fish are not necessarily the same as Louisiana fish. The chain will keep going. I'm rambling about the economic toll this will have because it's the easiest thing for me to get my mind around. I don't think we can begin to understand the devastation that has been dealt to the environment. This is an unprecedented man-made disaster on an epic scale.

I have heard comments that the public is being overly critical of BP, that this incident is a "black swan" and that occasional accidents are the price of our dependence on oil. I don't think we've been hard enough on them. This was not a black swan. A black swan is a rare unknowable unpredictable event, an outlier (for more read Taleb). BP knew the risks. They knew what the appropriate safeguards were and chose not to use them. When the worst case scenario occurred, they didn't have a crisis plan in place. They moved slowly to find a workable solution, and claimed they didn't understand at first the scope of the problem. Really? It's their hole, they are the supposed subject matter experts. The rest of the world took one look at it and said "this is really really bad" and you couldn't see it? People died because of their negligence, more will suffer, their livelihoods ruined. Uncountable plants will be killed. Unknown numbers of animals will suffer and die, likely slowly and painfully. But BP CEO Tony Hayward is very sorry. He just wants his life back, so hey, let's go easy on them. It's all good, right?

There is some truth to the notion that this "accident" is related to our oil dependance. We as a global society have become tied to this natural resource. The notion that "these things happen" is unacceptable. I believe in sustainable resource management. We have the technology to make it happen. Greed gets in the way. Indicators point to greed, the desire for higher profit from this necessary resource, as the cause. There are known risks to this type of resource exploitation. There are mitigation strategies that were ignored in the name of speed and ultimately a larger profit margin. What does that profit margin look like now? Our dependence is indirectly to blame, yes. But the exploitation of that need in the name of money is direct cause. Accidents can be prevented. This one could have been.

Some say the public has been too harsh on our government. I ask "Where the hell are they?" The Coast Guard should be applauded for their early attempts. At least they tried to do something. Congress wants to investigate the root cause. That's all well and good, but how about we stop the bleeding first? The President has said vary little. When asked, he said he's angry. Good. We all are. What are you going to do about it? This is an incident of national significance if ever I've seen one, and I believe it has more potential to harm the nation than a killer flu outbreak. How is it being handled? Hell, who is in charge?

I have heard a few say that this really isn't that big a deal. Yes it's bad, but the earth is a self-healing system, and it will clean its self up eventually. Yes, the earth does have some capacity to heal damage over time. The problem is that post-industrial revolution mankind has the ability to overload that capacity. We have a tendency to outstrip natural processes in such a way that the damage we can do in a matter of a few years or even days will take the plant thousands of years to heal. In the mean time, we damage the systems we depend on for life to the point where they can no longer meet our needs and our societies collapse (for more, read Diamond). This is a big deal. we have pushed beyond the threshold on this one.

Some of you who read this (If anyone reads this) will think I'm just angry. I am. I'm also frustrated and depressed. I'm angry at BP and I'm angry at the government. We give corporations rights, will we hold them responsible? I'm frustrated because I don't know what I can do to help fix the situation. I'm depressed because I look and see the scope of the problem, and all the suffering now and that is to come, and I don't see much hope.

What Next?

That's a good question. This last year has been extremely full. I pushed hard to graduate in two years rather than the three I originally planned. Now that I'm done, I'm finding myself with large holes where I used to study. I'm sure I'll find ways to fill them, like blogging for example, but I need to consider what my options are and where I'm going.

First there's the trip. Criss and I are taking a vacation that we've been looking forward to and I need to kick planning and prep into high gear. We haven't taken a vacation together without other family involved since we've been married. She may kill me before we get home.

Next there's the garden. We had really good results last year, and we're going to expand. I plan to spend a lot of time taking care of it and the yard in general this year. Maybe the neighbors will stop giving me the evil eye when I'm outside. Maybe closing the blinds in the bedroom would help too. I also have two years of an accumulated to-do list that needs to be taken care of. Not as much fun as the garden.

I need to get back into shape too. I have no excuse any more, and I just don't feel healthy. I'm going to start exercising again on days when I don't have to work late. I'm also going back off pop and I'm going to try to stay away from fast food. there's no reason I can't.

There are some other things too. I also want to spend time painting more. I feel kind of odd doing it in the summer when it's nice out, so that will probably be reserved for nasty weather or the winter months. I want to game more too, but I'll take that as it comes. I have a whole backlog of things I want to read for fun. Some of them are related to my research, some not so much.

I also have some more long-term (and slightly more serious) things I need to consider. I'm shopping for PhD programs. It would be easy, except I had to go and pick an odd niche research area that doesn't fit cleanly in one discipline. I have a couple of front runners, but I'm taking my time. I also still need to take the GRE. I got lucky. PUC didn't require it for the Master's program.

On a somewhat related note, I find am in an interesting employment situation. I have a Master's degree, I'm a CISSP, and I've got two publications under my belt. I feel like I have outgrown the position that I am in. There is nowhere to get promoted to and not much room to go sideways. I have discussed this with my boss, and (I think) he understands the position I am in. I need to see what's out there. I can take my time, find the right thing. It's nice to be in that position. It has not happened to me very often. I'm willing to entertain suggestions on any of the above subjects. Let me know.